Swings and Roundabouts

The 2011 Barnsley Central by-election saw Lib Dem voters desert their party, with their count collapsing by 75%, to just 1,102 - enough to cause panic but hardly enough to set of an intruder alarm.  Having previously split their votes 50/50 with the Conservatives, they slumped to sixth behind Labour, UKIP , the Conservatives, the BNP and an independent candidate.  They even managed to help Labour increase their majority AND increase their share of votes from 47% to 61%.  Whatever the Lib Dems are doing, the Alternative Vote system won't help if allegiances change like this.

I thought I'd put my AV model on hold for a moment whilst I look at a new analysis - second places.  First of all, have a look at this.

This chart looks at how the share of the vote for the winning party was distributed in the 2010 election.  So about 20 seats were won with between 35% and 40% of the vote.  But what happens if you superimpose the share of the vote for second and third place?

There are large overlaps between 3rd and 2nd place votes shares, and between 2nd and 3rd.  For example, in Dorset Mid and Poole North, the Lid Dems won the seat with 45.1% of the vote, and the Conservatives came 2nd with 44.5%.  But in Norwich South the Lib Dems won with just 29.4% of the vote.

In Hamspead and Kilburn, possible the most "even" of the seats, Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems shared around 97% of the vote between them almost equally.

I get the sense that a collapse of Lib Dem votes of even a fraction of what was witnessed in Barnsley, would change the landscape considerably.  But how?

In Barnsley, there was a swing from Lib Dem to Labour of 13.3%, and from Conservatives to Labour 11.3%.  There were also swings between Lib Dems and UKIP, and probably between Lib Dem and Conservatives although the "maths of swing" doesn't allow it.  In reality, the Lib Dem voters switched to several different parties.  I think that the coalition the Lib Dems are in is a dizzy roundabout that they wish they could get off.  I think they will get thrown off.

In a few weeks time, the Scottish devolved parliamentary elections will be held.  This could be a real litmus test for the Lib Dems and in fact the Conservatives as this is similar to a general election.  Members are elected using a First Past The Post system (73 constituencies)  plus a form of Proportional Representation (56 regional members).  At the moment the Lib Dems and Conservatives hold 17 constituency seats and 20 regional seats.  As they are now in coalition with one another, they could think about coordinating with each other to avoid splitting their votes.  But I don't think this will happen.  Lib Dem supporters already have endured the uncomfortable spectacle of their MPs compromising their beliefs (aka. reneging on manifesto promises) and of their leader actually defending Conservative party policy in parliament.  I think Lib Dem voters will progress from giving them a kicking, to inflicting a bloody nose.